Ecuador faces elimination when they host Germany in Group E's final match at MetLife Stadium. The South Americans have just one point from two games and must win to harbor any hopes of advancing, though their recent form—a loss followed by a draw—offers little encouragement. Germany, already qualified with six points, arrives in excellent form with back-to-back victories. Our model gives Germany a 45 percent chance to win, with a draw at 45 percent and Ecuador victory at just 10 percent. For Ecuador, this is a must-win scenario; for Germany, the match offers a chance to top the group and build momentum toward the knockout stage.