South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany1(3)
Paraguay1(4)
Netherlands1(2)
Morocco1(3)
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium3
Senegal2
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia1(2)
Egypt1(4)
Argentina3
Cape Verde Islands2
Colombia1
Ghana0France4England6Our model simulates the full remaining tournament 5,000 times, twice a day — then we keep score against reality.
Predictions from our statistical model (third-place slotting approximates FIFA's allocation). Narratives are AI-generated.
Spain100%Belgium0%France0%Croatia0%Sweden0%Brazil0%
Uruguay0%Colombia0%England0%
Panama0%The draw splits in two — follow each side down to its semi-finalist, then in to the Final where the two paths collide.
Projected scores are modeled from each side's group-stage goals (expected goals, neutral venue); a level score would be decided on penalties.
Germany100%77% winBosnia & Herzegovina100%Group E · 1st · 6 pts
vs Group B · 3rd · 4 pts
France100%92% winParaguay100%South Africa100%Canada100%100% winNetherlands100%Morocco100%100% winPortugal100%100% winCroatia100%Spain100%100% winAustria100%USA100%100% winEcuador100%Belgium100%100% winAlgeria100%Germany77%France92%100% winGroup I · 1st · 9 pts
vs Group E · 1st · 6 pts
if they meet
Canada100%Morocco100%100% winPortugal100%Spain100%100% winUSA100%Belgium100%100% winFrance92%100% winMorocco100%Group I · 1st · 9 pts
vs Group C · 2nd · 7 pts
if they meet
Spain100%100% winBelgium100%France92%Spain100%100% winGroup H · 1st · 7 pts
vs Group I · 1st · 9 pts
if they meet
Spain100%100% winArgentina100%England100%Argentina100%100% winNorway100%England100%100% winArgentina100%100% winSwitzerland100%Brazil100%Norway100%100% winMexico100%England100%100% winArgentina100%100% winEgypt100%Switzerland100%100% winColombia100%Brazil100%100% winJapan100%Ivory Coast100%Norway100%100% winMexico100%100% winSenegal100%England100%100% winCongo DR100%Argentina100%100% winCape Verde Islands100%Australia100%Egypt100%100% winSwitzerland100%100% winSweden100%Colombia100%100% winGhana100%Each stage is scored against the last simulation taken before it kicked off.
| Round of 32 | 32 of 32 called |
| Round of 16 | 15 of 16 called |
| Quarter-finals | 8 of 8 called |
| Semi-finals | 4 of 4 called |
| Final | 2 of 2 called |
Jul 21, 10:11 PM · Spain 100% · Belgium 0% · France 0%
Jul 22, 11:18 AM · Spain 100% · Belgium 0% · France 0%
Jul 22, 10:15 PM · Spain 100% · Belgium 0% · France 0%
Jul 23, 11:19 AM · Spain 100% · Belgium 0% · France 0%
Jul 23, 10:13 PM · Spain 100% · Belgium 0% · France 0%
Jul 24, 11:11 AM · Spain 100% · Belgium 0% · France 0%
Biggest misses: Germany (78%)