AI Insights
Narratives are AI-generated from verified match data; probabilities come from our statistical model.
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Probability of reaching the Round of 32
Today's key matchesAI
Japan's clash with Tunisia stands out as the most consequential fixture on this slate. Our model gives Japan a 76 percent chance of advancing from Group F, while Tunisia sits at just 9 percent—a stark disparity that makes this match potentially decisive for both teams' tournament survival.
The Belgium-Iran encounter follows closely in importance. Both nations remain mathematically alive in Group G, and our model rates them nearly even, with Iran at 69 percent and Belgium at 67 percent. This near-parity suggests the result could fundamentally reshape the group's outcome.
Spain versus Saudi Arabia ranks third. Spain holds a commanding 78 percent advancement probability compared to Saudi Arabia's 67 percent, indicating Spain enters as favorites but cannot afford complacency in a competitive Group H.
Finally, Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands present the tightest margins, with Cape Verde Islands at 65 percent and Uruguay at 63 percent. Though both remain alive, this Group H contest carries slightly less weight than the Spain match given the overall group dynamics.
Group analysis
Group AAI
Mexico has dominated Group A with two wins and a perfect defensive record, mathematically securing top spot. South Korea sits second with one victory and one defeat, also guaranteed advancement. The race for the remaining spots remains wide open. Czechia and South Africa both have one point from their opening matches, leaving both alive in the competition though facing steep odds. Our model gives Czechia a 24 percent chance of progressing. South Africa is eliminated. The final round promises drama, with South Korea facing South Africa while Mexico meets Czechia. Mexico's early dominance has set the tone, but qualification battles will intensify in the closing fixtures.
Who needs what
Mexico has already qualified mathematically, having secured six points from two wins with a perfect goal difference of plus three.
South Korea also qualified with three points and a win over Czechia, though they lost to Mexico. Their position is mathematically certain despite having only one match remaining.
Czechia remains alive in the race with one point from a draw. They can still reach the knockout stage, though their path depends on results in the final round. Our model gives them a twenty-four percent advance probability.
South Africa has been eliminated. With one point from their draw against Czechia and losses to both Mexico and South Korea, they cannot accumulate enough points to advance, even if they win their remaining match.
Group BAI
Group B has delivered compelling drama through two rounds. Canada and Switzerland sit level on four points after contrasting performances: Canada drew with Bosnia & Herzegovina before demolishing Qatar 6-0, while Switzerland recovered from a goalless start against Qatar to thrash Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-1. Both remain alive for top-two qualification.
Bosnia & Herzegovina's sole point came from that opening draw with Canada, but they suffered heavily against Switzerland. Qatar has managed just one goal across two matches, conceding seven. Our model gives Canada and Switzerland each a 100 percent advancement probability, reflecting their commanding positions. Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar remain mathematically alive but face steep odds, with our model estimating Bosnia's chances at 45 percent and Qatar's at 10 percent. The final round promises intensity as Canada and Switzerland clash directly.
Who needs what
Canada and Switzerland both sit on four points after two matches and have mathematically secured advancement to the knockout stage. Canada leads on goal difference plus six, while Switzerland's plus three keeps them competitive. In their final matchup, either could finish first in Group B.
Bosnia & Herzegovina remains alive for a knockout spot with one point from two games, though their maximum of four points leaves qualification uncertain. They face Qatar in their final match. Qatar, with one point and a maximum of four, has only a ten percent chance of advancing according to our model. Both teams need strong results, but Bosnia & Herzegovina's superior goal difference gives them a better path forward. All four teams' fates will be decided when the final matches conclude simultaneously on June 24.
Group CAI
Brazil and Morocco lead Group C with four points each after two matches, having drawn with each other before securing victories. Brazil's three-goal win over Haiti showcased their attacking prowess, while Morocco edged Scotland in a tight contest. Scotland sits third with three points and remains mathematically alive for advancement, though our model gives them a ninety-six percent chance. Haiti has been eliminated from top-two contention after two defeats. The group remains competitive heading into final matches, with Brazil and Morocco appearing strongest but both still needing points to guarantee progression. Scotland's resilience keeps them in contention for a third-place finish.
Who needs what
Brazil and Morocco are both mathematically certain to advance from Group C. Each holds four points after two matches and cannot be caught by Scotland, who has three points with one game remaining.
Scotland remains alive for a top-two finish with a maximum of six points possible. Our model gives them a 96 percent chance of advancing. They must navigate their final match against Brazil while hoping results elsewhere break favorably.
Haiti has been eliminated from contention for a knockout spot. With zero points from two matches and a maximum of three points available, they cannot reach the eight best third-place finishers needed to advance under the tournament format.
Group DAI
Group D has been dominated by the USA, who won both opening matches to secure qualification with a perfect record. They defeated Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0, scoring six goals while conceding just one. Australia bounced back from a loss to Türkiye with a 2-0 victory over Paraguay, leaving them level on three points with Paraguay but ahead on goal difference. Paraguay's sole win came against Türkiye, keeping their knockout hopes alive. Türkiye has been the group's disappointment, losing both matches without scoring. With one round remaining, the USA are through. Australia and Paraguay remain alive for the second spot, though our model gives Paraguay an 83 percent chance of advancing. Türkiye's mathematical elimination is confirmed.
Who needs what
USA has already qualified mathematically with six points from two wins. Australia and Paraguay remain alive for the top two spots, each with three points and a maximum of six available. Both teams play their final matches simultaneously on June 26. Paraguay currently ranks second among all third-place finishers and our model gives them an 83 percent chance to advance overall, accounting for both direct qualification and the eight best third-place teams advancing to the knockout stage. Türkiye is eliminated from top-two contention but retains a four percent chance through third-place qualification, though they must win their remaining match and hope other results align favorably.
Group EAI
Germany has dominated Group E with two commanding victories, scoring nine goals while conceding just two. They are mathematically qualified for the knockout stage. Ivory Coast sits second after beating Ecuador but losing narrowly to Germany; our model gives them a 98 percent chance of advancing. Ecuador and Curaçao remain in contention despite minimal points. Ecuador's scoreless draw with Curaçao was a missed opportunity, while Curaçao's heavy 7-1 loss to Germany has left them with just one point from two matches. Ecuador currently ranks eighth among third-place finishers and could still advance if results favor them. The final round will determine whether Ivory Coast secures a top-two finish or whether Ecuador or Curaçao can mount an unlikely comeback.
Who needs what
Germany has already qualified mathematically with six points from two wins. Ivory Coast remains alive for a top-two finish with three points and can secure qualification by avoiding defeat against Curaçao. Ecuador, currently third in the group with one point, needs a win over Germany to have any realistic chance of advancing, though our model gives them only a fourteen percent probability of qualifying. Curaçao, with one point from two matches, faces elimination unless they defeat Ivory Coast and results elsewhere break favorably. Ecuador's position as the current eighth-ranked third-place team means they could still advance if they finish third, since the best eight third-place teams qualify for the knockout stage.
Group FAI
Group F has delivered compelling football so far. The Netherlands lead with four points after drawing with Japan and demolishing Sweden five-one, showcasing their attacking prowess with seven goals in two matches. Sweden recovered from their opening loss to Tunisia with a dominant five-one victory, leaving them second on three points. Japan's draw against the Netherlands keeps them in contention despite playing just one match, while Tunisia's heavy defeat to Sweden has left them bottom with zero points.
The standout surprise is the Netherlands' clinical performance, particularly their second-game display. All four teams remain mathematically alive for advancement, though our model gives Japan a seventy-six percent chance and Tunisia only nine percent. The final round will determine the group's outcome, with multiple scenarios still possible.
Who needs what
Netherlands leads Group F with four points from one win and one draw. They need only avoid a heavy defeat to Japan or Tunisia to secure top-two qualification, which our model gives at 100 percent.
Sweden sits second with three points after beating Tunisia but losing to the Netherlands. They remain mathematically alive for a top-two finish with maximum six points possible.
Japan has one point from their draw with the Netherlands. Our model estimates a 76 percent chance they advance, though they remain alive for both top-two and third-place qualification depending on remaining results.
Tunisia faces the steepest climb after their opening loss to Sweden. With just one match played, they can still accumulate six points, keeping their 9 percent advancement probability alive mathematically.
Group GAI
Group G has delivered an unexpectedly open contest after its opening round. All four teams drew their matches, leaving Belgium and Egypt deadlocked at one point each after their 1-1 stalemate, while Iran and New Zealand also shared a 2-2 draw. This parity is remarkable for a group featuring a traditional European power in Belgium alongside three nations often considered underdogs at this level.
The surprise lies in the complete absence of a clear frontrunner. Our model gives Egypt the highest advancement probability at 79 percent, followed closely by Iran at 69 percent, Belgium at 67 percent, and New Zealand at 64 percent. All four teams remain mathematically alive for both top-two qualification and third-place advancement. With three matches remaining, Group G remains genuinely unpredictable.
Who needs what
Group G remains wide open after the opening round, with all four teams drawing their matches and each earning one point. Every team still has a mathematical path to the knockout stage.
New Zealand and Iran both drew 2-2, while Belgium and Egypt each finished 1-1. With three matches remaining, all four sides remain alive for a top-two finish. Our model gives Egypt the highest advance probability at 79 percent, followed by Iran at 69 percent, Belgium at 67 percent, and New Zealand at 64 percent.
Each team can accumulate a maximum of seven points from their remaining fixtures. The knockout qualification will likely depend on head-to-head results and goal difference in the final matches, particularly the simultaneous concluding games between Egypt-Iran and New Zealand-Belgium on June 27.
Group HAI
Group H opened with a surprising lack of goals. Spain and Cape Verde Islands played out a goalless draw, while Saudi Arabia and Uruguay shared a 1-1 stalemate. All four teams remain alive in the competition with one match played each.
The results have created an unusually tight situation. Every team has one point, making the group genuinely open. Spain's scoreless draw is notable given their pedigree, though our model gives them a 78 percent advancement probability. Saudi Arabia leads the advance odds at 67 percent despite drawing, while Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands sit at 63 and 65 percent respectively.
With two matches remaining for each team, qualification remains mathematically undecided across the board. The group's unpredictability suggests dramatic moments ahead.
Who needs what
Group H remains wide open after the first round. All four teams drew their matches, each earning a single point and keeping their knockout hopes alive.
Spain leads qualification chances at 78 percent according to our model, despite the goalless draw with Cape Verde Islands. Saudi Arabia follows at 67 percent after their 1-1 tie with Uruguay, while Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands sit at 63 and 65 percent respectively.
Each team can still accumulate seven points maximum. To advance, teams must either finish in the top two of the group or rank among the eight best third-place finishers. Spain currently holds sixth place among potential thirds, and the tournament format allows the best eight thirds to progress.
With two matches remaining for each side, every result matters. No team has been eliminated, and no team has secured advancement.
Group IAI
Group I opened with decisive victories for the favorites. Norway dominated Iraq 4-1, while France overcame Senegal 3-1, leaving both European sides on three points atop the table. The results exposed vulnerabilities in the African representatives: Senegal's defense struggled against France's attack, and Iraq couldn't contain Norway's offensive threat. Both Norway and France remain mathematically alive for top-two advancement with maximum nine points available. Senegal and Iraq, despite their losses, retain qualification hopes—our model gives Senegal a 45 percent advance probability and Iraq 29 percent. The group remains wide open heading into the final matches, though the early form suggests Norway and France are the favorites to progress.
Who needs what
Group I remains wide open after the opening round. Norway leads with a dominant 4-1 victory over Iraq, while France sits level on points after beating Senegal 3-1. Both frontrunners are mathematically alive for top-two qualification.
Senegal and Iraq each have six points maximum available, keeping both in contention. Senegal currently ranks eleventh among third-place finishers; our model gives them a 45 percent advance probability. Iraq sits at 29 percent.
Norway and France face each other on June 26, a decisive clash that will likely determine the group winner. Senegal must win their remaining matches to stay alive, while Iraq similarly needs victories to maintain knockout stage hopes. All four teams remain mathematically capable of advancing.
Group JAI
Group J opened with dominant performances from the favorites. Argentina and Austria both won convincingly, with Argentina defeating Algeria 3-0 and Austria edging Jordan 3-1. Both leaders sit on three points with perfect records after one match.
The surprise lies in the margins: Algeria was thoroughly outplayed, while Jordan showed some fight despite the loss. With maximum nine points still available for the top two teams, Argentina and Austria remain mathematically alive for top-two qualification. Jordan and Algeria, each on zero points with six maximum remaining, face an uphill battle. Our model gives Jordan a 44 percent advance probability, while Algeria sits at just 8 percent. The decisive clash between Argentina and Austria looms as the group's pivotal encounter.
Who needs what
Group J remains wide open after the opening round. Argentina and Austria both won decisively and lead with three points each, though both remain alive for top-two qualification. Their direct matchup on June 22 will likely prove decisive.
Jordan and Algeria each suffered defeats but retain mathematical chances. Jordan, currently ranked twelfth among all third-place finishers, needs victories in their remaining matches and favorable results elsewhere. Our model gives Jordan a 44 percent advance probability. Algeria faces steeper odds at 8 percent, having conceded three goals without scoring. Both teams must win their final matches to stay alive, with Jordan's clash against Algeria on June 23 potentially eliminating one side from contention.
Group KAI
Colombia made a commanding start to Group K, defeating Uzbekistan 3-1 to sit atop the standings with three points. Portugal and Congo DR drew 1-1 in their opener, each collecting a point. Uzbekistan remains pointless after their heavy loss.
Colombia's victory was the standout result, though the group remains wide open. Our model gives Colombia a 100 percent advance probability, while Congo DR and Portugal are nearly level at 77 and 76 percent respectively. Uzbekistan faces an uphill battle at just 18 percent.
All four teams remain mathematically alive in their pursuit of advancement. The decisive fixtures come later in the group stage, with Colombia facing both Portugal and Congo DR still to play.
Who needs what
Colombia leads Group K after one match with a 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan. They have already qualified mathematically for the knockout stage with a maximum of nine points available. Congo DR and Portugal each earned a draw in their opening fixture and remain alive for top-two qualification, with our model giving both teams around 76-77 percent advancement probability. Uzbekistan, defeated 1-3 by Colombia, can still mathematically reach the knockout stage but faces a steep climb with only six points possible and currently just an 18 percent advancement probability. All four teams remain alive in their pursuit, though Colombia's strong start has effectively secured their progression.
Group LAI
England and Ghana made strong starts in Group L, each claiming three points from their opening matches. England's four-goal haul against Croatia showcased attacking prowess, while Ghana's disciplined one-nil victory over Panama proved equally effective. Croatia's defeat was costly, leaving them with just two goals despite scoring twice. Panama remain pointless after their loss. With maximum nine points still available for England and Ghana, both remain mathematically alive for top-two qualification, though our model gives England a certain advance and Ghana ninety-nine percent. Croatia and Panama can each reach six points maximum, keeping their hopes alive but precarious. The group remains wide open beyond the favorites, with Panama currently occupying the third-place ranking among all groups.
Who needs what
England leads Group L after defeating Croatia 4-2 in their opening match. They need only to avoid a heavy defeat against Ghana to secure top-two qualification, which our model gives them a 100 percent chance of achieving.
Ghana sits second after beating Panama 1-0. They remain alive for a top-two finish and can qualify by winning or drawing against England, or by beating Croatia in their final match.
Panama lost to Ghana but remain mathematically alive for the knockout stage. With a maximum of six points available, they must win both remaining matches and hope results elsewhere break favorably. Our model gives them a 52 percent advance probability.
Croatia suffered a heavy opening loss to England. Like Panama, they can earn at most six points and face an uphill battle to advance, though our model estimates their chances at 32 percent.
Road to the Round of 32AI
The Round of 32 field is nearly locked. All twelve group leaders have clinched top spot, while ten of the twelve group runners-up have secured advancement. The real drama centers on which eight third-placed teams will claim the final spots.
Scotland leads the thirds race with three points and has already qualified. Paraguay sits second with three points and is also through. Japan, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Czechia, and Ecuador round out the eight qualifiers, each with just one point. Bosnia & Herzegovina, Panama, Senegal, and Jordan are eliminated from contention.
The tight point totals among the middle-ranked thirds mean final matches could shuffle positions. However, the eight qualifiers are mathematically certain to advance. The Round of 32 bracket will be determined by final group standings and which third-place teams finish where, creating varied matchup possibilities between group winners and the qualified runners-up and third-place finishers.
Simulation briefingAI
Our latest full-tournament simulation projects Germany as the strongest contender for the 2026 World Cup title, with a 17 percent championship probability, followed closely by Argentina at 16 percent and the USA at 14 percent. Norway rounds out the top tier at 13 percent, while France, Austria, and Colombia each hold 7 percent odds.
The model forecasts a Germany-Argentina final, with Germany appearing in 28 percent of simulated tournaments and Argentina in 24 percent.
Since our previous simulation, Germany has surged notably, gaining 7 percentage points in championship odds. The USA also climbed, adding 2 points to reach 10 percent. Norway improved by 2 points to 8 percent. Argentina moved in the opposite direction, dropping 1 point to 11 percent.
In Round of 32 matchups, Brazil appears heavily favored against Japan at 77 percent, while the Netherlands edges Morocco at 63 percent. Australia faces Egypt with 59 percent odds, and South Korea-Switzerland is the tightest projected contest at 30 percent for the home side.
AI Bracket →
Upset radar
The widest gaps between the betting market and our model on upcoming matches. Market odds are de-vigged and averaged across bookmakers.
AIThe Spain-Saudi Arabia clash tops today's upset radar, with bookmakers heavily favoring Spain at 86 percent while our model gives the Saudis just 35 percent—a 51-point disagreement. Jordan-Algeria shows similar divergence: the market backs Algeria at 61 percent, but our model sees only 10 percent for the visitors, suggesting Jordan could spring a surprise. England-Ghana presents another notable gap at 43 points, with bookmakers at 78 percent against our model's 35 percent for Ghana. These three matches represent the widest market-model splits on the slate, indicating potential value for bettors willing to back the underdogs. France-Iraq and Portugal-Uzbekistan show tighter consensus, though our model remains more cautious than the market in both cases.
Upset Radar — the verdict
How the model and the market did on matches we snapshotted before kickoff.
- Our model
- 6/12 called
- Brier 0.64
- Market
- 8/12 called
- Brier 0.46
- Flagged upsets
- 0/2 landed
Best call: Scotland – Morocco · Scotland (45% vs 17%)
Tracked matches
- Germany 2-1 Ivory CoastOur model ✓Market ✓
- Netherlands 5-1 SwedenupsetOur model ✗Market ✓
- Brazil 3-0 HaitiOur model ✓Market ✓
- Scotland 0-1 MoroccoupsetOur model ✗Market ✓
- USA 2-0 AustraliaOur model ✓Market ✓
- Mexico 1-0 South KoreaOur model ✓Market ✓
- Canada 6-0 QatarOur model ✓Market ✓
- Czechia 1-1 South AfricaOur model ✗Market ✗
- England 4-2 CroatiaOur model ✓Market ✓
- Saudi Arabia 1-1 UruguayOur model ✗Market ✗
- Belgium 1-1 EgyptOur model ✗Market ✗
- Netherlands 2-2 JapanOur model ✗Market ✗
Tracked from launch onward — one row per match snapshotted before kickoff. Brier score: lower = sharper probabilities.