This is a completed archive of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The data is frozen at the final whistle — no live scores, odds, or updates.
AI Insights
Narratives are AI-generated from verified match data; probabilities come from our statistical model.
…
Upset Radar — the verdict
How the model and the market did on matches we snapshotted before kickoff.
- Our model
- 51/80 called
- Brier 0.62
- Market
- 57/80 called
- Brier 0.43
- Flagged upsets
- 3/12 landed
Best call: France – Spain · Spain (45% vs 30%) ✓
Tracked matches
- Spain 1-0 ArgentinaOur model ✓Market ✓
- France 4-6 EnglandOur model ✗Market ✗
- England 1-2 ArgentinaupsetOur model ✓Market ✗
- France 0-2 SpainupsetOur model ✓Market ✗
- Argentina 3-1 SwitzerlandOur model ✓Market ✓
- Norway 1-2 EnglandOur model ✓Market ✓
- Spain 2-1 BelgiumOur model ✓Market ✓
- France 2-0 MoroccoOur model ✓Market ✓
- Switzerland 0-0 ColombiaOur model ✗Market ✗
- Argentina 3-2 EgyptOur model ✓Market ✓
- USA 1-4 BelgiumupsetOur model ✓Market ✗
- Portugal 0-1 SpainOur model ✓Market ✓
Tracked from launch onward — one row per match snapshotted before kickoff. Brier score: lower = sharper probabilities.
Probability of reaching the Round of 32
EnglandL100%
SpainH100%
AlgeriaJ0%
ArgentinaJ0%
AustraliaD0%
AustriaJ0%
BelgiumG0%
Bosnia & HerzegovinaB0%
BrazilC0%
CanadaB0%
Cape Verde IslandsH0%
ColombiaK0%
Congo DRK0%
CroatiaL0%
CuraçaoE0%
CzechiaA0%
EcuadorE0%
EgyptG0%
FranceI0%
GermanyE0%
GhanaL0%
HaitiC0%
IranG0%
IraqI0%
Ivory CoastE0%
JapanF0%
JordanJ0%
MexicoA0%
MoroccoC0%
NetherlandsF0%
New ZealandG0%
NorwayI0%
PanamaL0%
ParaguayD0%
PortugalK0%
QatarB0%
Saudi ArabiaH0%
ScotlandC0%
SenegalI0%
South AfricaA0%
South KoreaA0%
SwedenF0%
SwitzerlandB0%
TunisiaF0%
TürkiyeD0%
UruguayH0%
USAD0%
UzbekistanK0%