Our AI's odds for all 48 teams — to win it all, and to reach every round — side by side with the prediction market, and where the two most disagree.
Argentina+412%
France+420%
England+313%
Portugal−47%
Spain−314%
Brazil−16%
Ivory Coast$7.3M1%
USA$5.3M3%
Ecuador$4.6M0%Our model significantly overrates Germany, Norway, and the USA as World Cup winners compared to the prediction market, giving them 16%, 13%, and 13% respectively versus the market's 5.3%, 2.4%, and 3.4%. Conversely, the market favors Spain and France much more heavily, though our model shows a striking disagreement on Spain's ability to reach the last 16, rating them at just 12% versus the market's 78.5%.
The market's title odds for the top contenders over the last month
France20%Spain14%England13%Argentina12%Portugal7%— prediction market · ┄ our AI
Shaded by the edge — our AI minus the market. England and Scotland share one shape; hover for both.
France19.4%8%−11.4Spain13.4%0%−13.4England12.3%6%−6.3Argentina11.5%17%+5.5Portugal7%0%−7.0Brazil5.8%1%−4.8
Netherlands5.6%1%−4.6
Germany5.3%16%+10.7USA3.4%13%+9.6
Norway2.4%13%+10.6
Morocco2.2%0%−2.2
Belgium1.5%0%−1.5
Colombia1.4%6%+4.6
Japan1.3%0%−1.3
Mexico1.2%5%+3.8
Croatia0.6%0%−0.6
Switzerland0.6%0%−0.6Ivory Coast0.5%0%−0.5
Senegal0.5%0%−0.5
Uruguay0.5%0%−0.5
Austria0.3%7%+6.7
Canada0.3%3%+2.7
South Korea0.3%0%−0.3
Australia0.2%0%−0.2
Egypt0.2%0%−0.2
Sweden0.2%0%−0.2
Congo DR0.1%0%−0.1Ecuador0.1%0%−0.1
Paraguay0.1%0%−0.1
Scotland0.1%0%−0.1
Algeria0%0%0.0
Bosnia & Herzegovina0%0%0.0
Cape Verde Islands0%0%0.0
Curaçao0%0%0.0
Czechia0%0%0.0
Ghana0%3%+3.0
Iran0%0%0.0
Iraq0%0%0.0
Jordan0%0%0.0
New Zealand0%0%0.0
Panama0%0%0.0
Qatar0%0%0.0
Saudi Arabia0%0%0.0
South Africa0%0%0.0
Tunisia0%0%0.0
Uzbekistan0%0%0.0Edge = our AI minus the market. Implied odds from public prediction markets, shown for context — not betting advice.